If they end up not changing rates this is going to be crazy suspicious.
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69 sats \ 8 replies \ @grayruby 3h
If they have inside info why did they bet so little?
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45 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 3h
Maybe it’s their liquidity constraint
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69 sats \ 6 replies \ @grayruby 2h
Could be. Anyways I don't buy it. Fed doesn't like to surprise the market and they have signaled rate cut. I bought 35k shares of 25% cut on predyx today.
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40 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 2h
That gave me a nice arb opportunity (or "arbportunity", if you will), which is the other likely possibility. They may have done it to cover some other financial risk they were exposed to.
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69 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 2h
I think arb or just a total degen.
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40 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 2h
Maybe they just fat-thumbed No, while trying to place a Yes wager.
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69 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 2h
Could be. I accidentally sell shares on predyx PWA all the time. They need to fix the fact that it defaults to sell when you have sold one outcome and go to the next outcome in the same market.
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 2h
Maybe they'll change it to default back to buy once they get to where we aren't making sats on average.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 2h
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 3h
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45 sats \ 4 replies \ @SimpleStacker 4h
I can understand throwing a few dollars into prediction markets for fun, but I don't understand people who put serious money in markets with almost no safeguards against insider trading.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @steakneggs 1h
I think there should be more insider trading. If the purpose is to approximate the likelihood of an event happening, insiders are the ones with the best information / signal. If you're placing bets without any reliable info you might as well be betting on dice rolls.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 1h
#212341
That's the problem with prediction markets: the incentive to participate. I'd have to have some inside information to get a net positive return; game theory then suggests that the only people participating are those with inside information, which erodes my advantage.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @steakneggs 43m
I don't really see it as a problem, that seems like the innovation.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 3h
There are a LOT of fools. When I am surprised by things I have to remind myself of this. Generations of guardrails or at least being told there are people protecting us has led to very foolish behaviors.
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 3h
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 1h
...and since they were wrong, we conclude reckless gambler yes...?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 1h
I did a 100k sat on 50bps cut and 100k on No change on Predyx all in Sats.
Won some delicious sats though on 25bps cut, haha
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 2h
The FED needs to be cautious now that USA cannot prop up its exceptional privilege with military force.
Without China supplying rare earths the US military monetary combine is significantly disabled.
USA cannot now fight a war of any significance and duration without China resuming supply of rare earths.
Monetary and military power structures are very closely aligned.
The neoliberalised west forgot the strategic importance of actual ability to make and refine strategic materials and products.
Now it is at the mercy of Chinas mercantile mixed economy.
Best to keep what little monetary and military powder it has left, dry.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 2h
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