pull down to refresh

The decision came after a team of economists noticed problems with the data for one country, Uzbekistan, that significantly skewed the results. If Uzbekistan were excluded, they found, the damages would look similar to earlier research. Instead of a 62 percent decline in economic output by 2100 in a world where carbon emissions continue unabated, global output would be reduced by 23 percent.
The paper was also cited by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and was in the top 5 percent of journal articles tracked by Altmetric, a measurement tool for research impact. Carbon Brief, a climate-focused news outlet, found it was the second most referenced climate paper in 2024.
As one remedy, some researchers recommend not trying to do so much in the first place. Noah Kaufman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who worked in the Biden White House, believes studying specific questions — like how to decarbonize while keeping electricity affordable — is more useful than projecting macroeconomic impacts decades down the road.
“There are just a lot of examples in the world where we do recognize that there are large risks, but we don’t pretend we can optimize our response to them,” Mr. Kaufman said. “We just try to avoid them in a reasonable way.”
As one remedy, some researchers recommend not trying to do so much in the first place. Noah Kaufman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who worked in the Biden White House, believes studying specific questions — like how to decarbonize while keeping electricity affordable — is more useful than projecting macroeconomic impacts decades down the road.
The problem: nuanced solutions don't sell as much in the press and amongst the political class compared to climate hysteria. And it's safe to say that the press and the politicians are among the economists' top consumers. How many careers have been built on stoking the climate hysteria flames?
reply
The even bigger problem is that these are solutions in search of problems.
reply
The climate change denial coming from USA today is only hastening its decline in relation to the rest of the world. USAs energy policies are a tragic throwback to the 1950s- a symptom of a dying empire in complete denial about the reality of climate change and the already available solutions that USA is ignoring...leaving China to gain a massive lead in nuclear, hydro, solar and wind generation...
USA cannot build anything of substance anymore- certainly not in a competitive way compared to China- look at tghe tragic attempt by USA to build new nuclear generation compared to Chinas amazing success where they are building multiple new nuclear generators at 1/6th the cost USA is paying. 1/6th!
Chinese businesses and consumers pay less than 1/2 what other industrialised world consumers and businesses pay and the electrification of transport including bullet trains and heavy trucks is rapidly eliminating urban smog. EVs adoption gives China yet another huge advantage over the crony capitalist climate change denying USA.
reply
To be clear, even sensationalist garbage isn’t saying a 62% reduction compared to today.
These kinds of claims are counterfactual comparisons of possible futures: ie the year 2100 economy is 62% smaller than it could have been.
reply
Why anyone would trust a 100 year projection based on a macro model in the first place is part of the problem
reply
Yeah, the part I left out is that no one, including the author, has any confidence in the baseline model.
reply