archive: https://archive.ph/xPlyL
The decision came after a team of economists noticed problems with the data for one country, Uzbekistan, that significantly skewed the results. If Uzbekistan were excluded, they found, the damages would look similar to earlier research. Instead of a 62 percent decline in economic output by 2100 in a world where carbon emissions continue unabated, global output would be reduced by 23 percent.
The paper was also cited by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and was in the top 5 percent of journal articles tracked by Altmetric, a measurement tool for research impact. Carbon Brief, a climate-focused news outlet, found it was the second most referenced climate paper in 2024.
As one remedy, some researchers recommend not trying to do so much in the first place. Noah Kaufman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who worked in the Biden White House, believes studying specific questions — like how to decarbonize while keeping electricity affordable — is more useful than projecting macroeconomic impacts decades down the road.“There are just a lot of examples in the world where we do recognize that there are large risks, but we don’t pretend we can optimize our response to them,” Mr. Kaufman said. “We just try to avoid them in a reasonable way.”