I was curious about this, as many mainstream pundits are starting to say 'put at least a small allocation of your portfolio into Bitcoin'. For many this allocation would probably be at the expense of investing into the S&P 500 etf so I was wondering what that growth might look like.

Per ChatGPT, the best performing 10 year stretch (because I want to know some real long term growth) for the S&P was 1949-1958 in the post WWII expansion period. It had an annualized return of 17.9%, which means if you started with $10k you would have $51896 at thr end of it, a 419% increase. Not neglecting ever present inflation which was 21-22% reportedly, the purchasing power would make it like $42500, which would be a 325% increase in real.purchasing power over the best 10 year stretch of the S&P'S lifetime.

Now, this is the best, the absolute BEST the S&P has ever done and it was over 75 years ago after the most destructive war in history. Not thinking these conditions are really in the cards again, so let's look at the WORST performing stretch of the S&P, to give us a bit of a bottom hopefully. Again, per ChatGpt that would be 1999-2008, when the annualized return in both the dot com bust and GFC was -3.8%, which means if you started with $10k you would have $6788 left in 2008, a total -32% decrease even with returns reinvested. With inflation at 26% for the decade that means the real purchasing power an investor would get at the end of it would be $5390, or a -46% decline in real purchasing power over the worst 10 year stretch of its history.

Now, enter Bitcoin. I'm not going to do a 10 year analysis of its 10 year annualized return since it is so early in its history. I myself haven't even done a full 10 years invested in BTC, having been in since 'only' 2017. I had heard whispers of it a few times before than, in passing on message boards and when MtGox rose and fell, and felt it was mature enough at that time that I could feel comfortable enough throwing in some money I didn't need at that time and it would still be there later. With BTC and BTC products/stand ins being a significant part of my retirement portfolio (not going to argue thats NOT risky, was one of the only ways to get exposure via 401k funds), my retirement savings have risen significantly. Not quite 325% but not -46% either.

With these being the upper and lower limits to gains and losses with the 'safe' S&P etf allocation, the question now becomes do you think BTC will rise more than ~18% a year? Or have a loss of less than 32% at the end of 10 years. As Bitcoiners, since we are all here I think we feel we know what the answer to that will be. Now its more a matter of if it does and what others will say when they realize safe isnt going to be so safe anymore, since inflation from 2015 to now is estimated to be 35-45% on the core side of things....