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100 sats \ 12 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 25 Nov \ parent \ on: Ukraine agrees to full terms of US's proposed peace proposal Politics_And_Law

The war ending is bad for Europe because can they defend Finland, the Baltic states and Poland without the US, while being busy securing Ukraine? I think no.

I don't get what you're saying, can you break it down?

33 sats \ 11 replies \ @optimism 25 Nov

Putin has been making war since 2008. If he "wins" in Ukraine where is the next war going to be?
Trump has been making clear that because he is unhappy with the share of EU contributions that the US will not honor Article 5 if Russia invades.

Thus: the EU no longer has a US ally - NATO is politically dead. It has an aggressor on the east border, one that will, when this war ends without a Russian defeat, stretch from Northern Finland to Southern Ukraine.

That's the position the EU is now finding itself in. If they collaborate on this plan they are fucked, if they say no, they're fucked. Its getting fucked time in the EU.

100 sats \ 4 replies \ @anon 26 Nov

Prof John Mearsheimer, famous geopolitical theorist, has said time and again that Ukraine is going to lose the war of attrition and that Trump doesn't want it to take the blame for it. How to let Ukraine lose without being accused of abandoning them entirely?

Propose a peace plan that the Russians will accept (improves US-Russia relations)
Sell weapons to the EU so that they can supply them to Ukraine (the US never abandons its allies)
Leave the final decision and long-term consequences to the EU (so the US can gracefully pivot its attention to China)

Art of the Deal baby!!

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @optimism 26 Nov

I often wonder if Mearsheimer is a third-party-fulfilling prophecy. As in even if he's wrong, he's made right when possible.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 26 Nov

What is that supposed to mean?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 26 Nov

That he's being heard.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 26 Nov

Mearsheimer predicted the current Ukraine-Russia war 10 years ago. Very few people in the US state department or European parliament subscribed to his thesis at the time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

The Munk debate from 2022 between Mearhsheimer (strucutural realist) and Michael McFaul (color revolution proponent/architect) is worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhgWLmd7mCo

100 sats \ 5 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 25 Nov

It could happen, but I don't see things that way. I'm not buying that Putin is gonna invade other European countries, and if he does, it won't be now. By the time it goes down, Trump won't even be in the White House. Maybe I'm being naive, but that's just how I see this whole situation. The thing that actually worries me is the weapons lobby.

33 sats \ 4 replies \ @optimism 25 Nov

Can't leave that up to chance if you're the EU. No allies is a situation that hasn't happened since WWII. So what's the deterrent? Drones cost nothing if you have oil reserves and a printer.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 25 Nov

This whole 'no allies' thing is super speculative. I reckon the US won't leave us hanging, even with Trump as prez.

33 sats \ 2 replies \ @optimism 25 Nov

Whats the incentive for the US to honor Article 5? Its cheaper to bribe Putin with some Ukrainian land. Maybe some Polish land too. Then some German land. Then maybe hand everything east of Vienna over while were at it.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner 25 Nov

Selling weapons? they ain't giving nothing away. All the gear that might come from the US is paid for. That's not much of an incentive, is it?

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 25 Nov

That's a great incentive for having your allies using those weapons outside of their territory, but not much for defending their territory, unless they win. But the US is also lacking anti-drone platforms, just like the EU. Everything is expensive antimissile.