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I'm not saying devs are fucked. I'm saying hard times. Think of it as the transitioning period between where the old boss sacks you and the future new boss needs a minute to figure out they actually need you and are ready to keep you employed.
It takes time to wrap your head around what you need; we do not blindly follow LLM slop business plans just like we don't just blindly follow every sexy sounding idea a consultant comes up with. Tradeoffs still exist and need to be thought through. Like I said above: filling up a backlog is easy. But it'll take a lot of time for organizations to figure out that they need a staff coder. And what this person would bring to the org as a whole. The transition at the org level is not in the "let's gooo" phase, at least not for the orgs I deal with.
I think that the good news for devs is that with the productivity increase and if time is used well, the impact one can have upon an organization is much greater, and thus personal value increases, not decreases. But the used well is the distinguishing factor in this, and that is not something I see much readiness for. So it'll take time. I'm sure it will be fine, but I expect a lot of torn clothes. Perhaps turbulent times would have been a better descriptor.
PS: sorry to contribute to the negativity. It's not what I meant to do. I'm just not buying the "everything grows" narrative. At least not in the short/mid term.
turbulent times
On that we align, and turbulence is hard for many people.
I'm just not buying the "everything grows" narrative. At least not in the short/mid term.
That's reasonable to me. I wish I could part out why we're all anticipating scary short/mid term turbulence when technology is improving. I want to believe it's the wake of the ZIRP pivot reaching shore. Otherwise I feel like I'm being asked to believe this round of technology is zero sum.
turbulence is hard for many people.
Yes. I just fear that people will be left behind, at least for a while, and I think that we should keep an eye on that. Look at the people more than the statistic. I'm sure GDP growth will be great.
I wish I could part out why we're all anticipating scary short/mid term turbulence when technology is improving.
I think it has something to do with the sunny picture being photoshopped vs reality not matching up. Ultimately the hype/fomo is the cause of this. Not the tech, not the potential application of it. Not the final outcome. If the process sucks, pain will be experienced. And I don't think that much pain will be experienced by those fueling the hype the most.
Otherwise I feel like I'm being asked to believe this round of technology is zero sum.
I don't believe that either.
I think this underestimates demand for software. Large orgs will downsize. Orgs that couldn't produce software before or were paying large orgs expensive SaaS will hire engineers now. I think software focused orgs will have a hard time. Every org that has use for software, but couldn't afford a team of 5 to get the job done, will hire an engineer or two now, or consult with some awesome agency. Unless we're saying that high quality software will get grunt-shotted and maintain itself with occasional grunts now. In which case I think more than devs are going to have a hard time.
Forgive my continued advocacy for the devil, but devs-are-fucked is the only take I see in my timeline and I suspect it's
If devs are fucked, I think everyone else is fucked in short order. Unless one can argue this is a dev-specific breakthrough (which I struggle to imagine). Either human oversight/steering has value or it doesn't, and automating work via code, sans-inference, has value or it doesn't.