Here's how I'd explain it. In response to AI, there are three types of developers/companies:
Reduce dev hours in response
Maintain dev hours in response
Increase dev hours in response
The logic and effects in the product market are as follows:
Reduce dev hours -> Maintain product quality/quantity
Maintain dev hours -> Increase product quality/quantity (due to higher productivity)
Increase dev hours -> Increase product quality/quantity by a lot
We don't know the distribution of what companies will choose, so in terms of how it affects the dev labor market, the impact of AI is pretty ambiguous.
But the impact on product output and quality is unambiguous -- it will increase.
One thing that both @optimism and I predict is that AI will unleash a lot of bespoke software. You can think of this as an increase in product quality (better fit to needs). In terms of the labor market, if the company hires more in-house devs or turns non-devs into devs, that could be thought of as an increase in the dev labor market. If they drop a contract that supported 5 devs and gave the work to 1 in-house dev, that would be a decrease.
Here's how I'd explain it. In response to AI, there are three types of developers/companies:
The logic and effects in the product market are as follows:
We don't know the distribution of what companies will choose, so in terms of how it affects the dev labor market, the impact of AI is pretty ambiguous.
But the impact on product output and quality is unambiguous -- it will increase.
One thing that both @optimism and I predict is that AI will unleash a lot of bespoke software. You can think of this as an increase in product quality (better fit to needs). In terms of the labor market, if the company hires more in-house devs or turns non-devs into devs, that could be thought of as an increase in the dev labor market. If they drop a contract that supported 5 devs and gave the work to 1 in-house dev, that would be a decrease.