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Bitcoin Is Trading Nearly 50% Below Its “Fair Value”
Global liquidity models suggest BTC’s fair value sits around $165,000
A valuation model built on global liquidity metrics has raised an interesting signal: the fair value of Bitcoin is currently estimated at around $165,000.
Meanwhile, BTC’s actual market price is almost 47% lower, indicating a significant undervaluation.
🔍 Why does this model matter?
Unlike sentiment-based indicators, a fair-value model grounded in liquidity reflects:
Whether global liquidity is expanding or contracting
The broader credit cycle of the financial system
How much liquidity non-sovereign assets like BTC can absorb
The allocation of capital between gold, equities, and safe-haven assets
When global liquidity rises, history shows that Bitcoin is usually the earliest and strongest responder.
📉 How long can BTC stay below fair value?
According to the model’s creator:
“The market won’t be able to keep BTC far below the $165,000 level for too long. A nearly 50% gap between spot price and fair value is not sustainable.”
This isn’t a prediction of immediate upside—it’s a structural observation based on previous cycles:
2016–2017: BTC traded 30–40% below fair value before breaking out
2020: BTC stayed ~35% undervalued before hitting new highs
2023–2024: liquidity expansion drove major price appreciation
If the pattern repeats, the market will eventually need to close this gap—either through a contraction in liquidity or through BTC rising toward its fair value.
🚀 Undervaluation = a major cycle opportunity
A 47% discount to fair value is rare in Bitcoin’s post-2013 history.
For cycle-focused observers:
This is not a signal to “buy now”
It’s a signal that the risk of sitting out is greater than the risk of participating
When global liquidity is the driving force, Bitcoin tends to be the asset most mispriced—
and the asset that corrects the fastest.