EconVerse

Stacker_Stocks

It has thus become the best commodity of the year, and many are already speculating that the movement could turn into a short squeeze capable of taking metal to $100. But the real question isn't how far it will go. The question is: is this hype or fundamental?

![](https://m.stacker.news/121187)


Silver has risen more than 80% in 12 months, outperforming gold, natural gas, and copper. This is not an isolated or speculative increase. It is a historic repricing of a metal that spent decades too cheap for the strategic role it plays.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121188)


Unlike the price surges of 1980 and 2011, today's increase is not born from panic or manipulation. It arises because the global industry needs more silver than the world can produce. We are not facing euphoria. We are facing physical scarcity.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121189)



The solar industry alone will consume more than 424 million ounces of silver by 2030. That's equivalent to 40% of the current global annual supply. Without silver, there is no efficient solar energy. Without solar energy, the energy transition collapses.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121190)



Electric vehicles, AI, data centers, robotics, and advanced batteries also rely on silver. Some new battery models may contain up to 1 kilogram of silver per car. It is not possible to replace this metal with the same conductivity, stability, and durability. There is a silver shortage.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121191)



At the same time, global stockpiles disappeared. London is dry, traders have had to transport bars by plane, and the cost of borrowing silver has reached 200 percent per year. This is a sign of a physical squeeze, not digital speculation.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121192)



Another factor accelerated everything. The United States has just included silver on its official list of critical minerals. Now the metal is treated as a strategic resource. This changes the dynamics of exports, stockpiles, and industrial incentives. Silver has become a matter of sovereignty.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121193)




The problem is that production can't keep up. Only 28% of the silver extracted worldwide comes from dedicated mines. The rest is a byproduct of zinc, lead, gold, or copper. Even with high prices, there isn't enough supply to grow quickly.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121194)




So the current movement isn't just a short squeeze. It's the end of decades of financial repression in a metal that was treated as cheap jewelry while, in practice, becoming an essential ingredient of the digital economy and the energy transition.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121195)





Hype is when a price rises without foundation. What's happening with silver in 2025 is the opposite. The price is only beginning to reflect a technological and energy reality. If the world truly moves towards green and AI, the future doesn't ask if it will reach 100. It asks when.

Silver hit a $60 all-time high and almost no one is talking about it.

The Japanese market is experiencing its strongest year for fundraising since 2018, with offerings exceeding ¥1.2 trillion and oversubscriptions above 60x, reflecting Asian liquidity and appetite for new names.

This movement follows the broader wave of IPOs in Asia, which includes India at record highs and Hong Kong in recovery.

For those who follow global cycles, this flow reinforces the thesis of regional rotation and structural repositioning of capital.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121138)

IPO boom in Japan

Discussions about the succession at the Fed are already showing up: the mere possibility of a chair perceived as less independent reignites the risk that the central bank will have to resort to QE to keep long-term interest rates down.

The case of the United Kingdom in 2022 is a good reminder… fiscal and institutional credibility weighs much more heavily on duration than “forced cuts”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121137)

The succession at the Fed is already affecting the yield curve.

At least that's what several banks are already saying.

The Fed is expected to inject $150 billion into bank reserves. This is all to save the repo market, which has shown serious imbalances in recent weeks.

If the economy weakens, this amount could easily explode to trillions of dollars.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120969)

Pressure on the system: Fed may initiate a new liquidity cycle with $150 billion

Technical flow has returned with force: CTAs are re-leveraging, systematic selling is disappearing, realized volatility is falling, and models are starting to re-add exposure.

If this is what they call "cautious positioning," imagine what full-blown euphoria would be like…

![](https://m.stacker.news/120943)

Market in "risk-on" mode.

deleted by author

Brent crude held its gains for two days, amid a mix of discussions about a ceasefire in Ukraine and concerns about oversupply.

If an agreement progresses and sanctions are lifted, more barrels could return to the market, precisely when inventories are already putting pressure on prices.

In other words: oil is reacting, but the backdrop remains challenging for those expecting a firm recovery in prices.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120670)

Oil: a truce in sight, but without euphoria.

The streaming giant offered $30 per share, totaling $73.5 billion, for the Streaming & Studios division, thus gaining the right to exclusively negotiate the final details of the purchase.

Netflix is ​​acquiring Warner Bros., HBO, DC, HBO Max, and the catalog of productions and franchises of WBD.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120588)

Netflix won the auction for Warner Bros. Discovery.

Trump is expected to announce the new Fed chairman in early 2026. And the frontrunner is leading the market to believe that the money printer might return. If that happens, we will enter a very positive liquidity cycle for investments, especially real assets and the stock market.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120526)


Today, the favorite to take over the Fed is Kevin Hassett, with a 72% probability according to Polymarket. The second-placed candidate has only 14%. This is not opinion; it's the market pricing in the candidate. And this difference increases every week.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120527)


Hassett is a proponent of high nominal growth, controlled real interest rates, and coordination between the Fed and the Treasury. This tends to expand liquidity. And investors believe that inflation may rise again due to the injection of liquidity.


At the same time, the financial system is crying out for help. The SOFR, the central repos market rate, has been above the Fed's desired limit for days, reaching 4.12%, while the ceiling is 4%.

When the market finances above the Fed's ceiling, it signifies stress. The last time this happened was in 2019, resulting in a type of QE.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120528)


Another piece of evidence is the use of the Standing Repo Facility. It exists for use in emergencies, not in everyday situations.

In recent days, the SRF has been used for approximately $70 billion. This is like a hospital needing to open ICU beds every morning. It's not normal.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120529)



And the main reservoir of excess liquidity simply dried up. In 2022, Reverse Repo held 2.5 trillion. Today, less than 3 billion remain.

This is the lowest level in four years. With the RRP empty, the system has no buffer. It's like driving a truck without engine brakes.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120530)



Without this buffer, the Treasury directly used money from banks to rebuild the TGA (Treasury current account), which went from $400 billion to almost $1 trillion. The result: bank reserves plummeted.

When reserves fall too low, banks stop lending and funding freezes, creating a liquidity crisis. Exactly what is happening now.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120531)



In 2019, reserves reached $1.5 trillion, and the market felt it. The Fed had to urgently initiate QE to replenish liquidity. Today, although above that level, there is no room in the RRP, so the situation is critical, given that the Treasury continues to issue a lot of debt and has nowhere to get that money from.

And now the Fed has ended QT to avoid crossing that red line.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120532)



We then add:
• rapidly declining bank reserves
• empty RRP (Reserve Reserve Ratio)
• SRF (Fed Emergency Line) being routinely activated
• SOFR (Interbank Offered Rate) above the target range
• US deficit greater than 6 percent of GDP
• projected issuance above $1.5 trillion in 2026

This creates political and technical pressure to print money.



With a new Fed possibly more aligned with growth and liquidity, and a financial system demanding an injection of dollars, the next phase is clear.

Liquidity returns, assets rise, debt is inflated, cash loses real value. In cycles like this, those who have assets prosper. Those who hold onto money melt away.

Trump's favorite for the Fed who could change the entire liquidity cycle.

At each Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, the alarmist narrative resurfaces: "Trillions of dollars in carry trade will implode global markets."

But when we look at the primary data and not the headlines, the story is different. Analyzing two critical liquidity and positioning indicators:

1. Speculative Positioning (CFTC) At the beginning of 2024, the market carried a massive short position in Yen (-200,000 contracts). When the Bank of Japan signaled normalization, we saw the August "purge." The scenario today? It's reversed. The market is long (Net Long +65k contracts). The speculative "weak hand" has already been eliminated. There is no longer pent-up selling pressure to cause a squeeze.

2. Bank Funding (Call Money) In 2008, foreign banks held peaks of ¥114 trillion in short-term loans in Japan – the classic fuel of global leverage. Today? We are at the lows, near ¥15 trillion. Structural funding in Yen has dried up.

Where is the money now? (The Rotation) Capital doesn't disappear, it migrates. With the strengthening of the Yen, carry trade sought new destinations, the main one being Switzerland. A significant portion of this global leverage rotated to the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Conclusion: If speculators are at zero and banks aren't financing trade via Tokyo, Japan's carry trade no longer has the relevance that most people imagine.

Does this mean we are risk-free?

No.
The structural repatriation of Japanese pension funds may still put pressure on US Treasury bonds. But this is a slow and somewhat predictable flow, not a panic sell-off event.

The next risk-off event has a different trigger as a candidate, and not for now, but that's a topic for future posts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120354)

![](https://m.stacker.news/120355)

Is Japanese Carry Trade Still a Threat? Let's look at the data!

Switzerland has just shown why it is one of the most admired countries in the world: 78% of voters rejected a 50% tax on inheritances above CHF 50 million.

While the world tries to tax wealth, Switzerland chooses to create wealth.



The proposal sought to tax large inherited fortunes to finance "social projects." The Swiss voter understood something simple: where capital is punished, capital flees.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120209)



In previous years:

- Swiss voted to raise the retirement age.

- Rejected increasing paid vacation time.

- Consistently reject unrealistic public spending.

It's a culture of responsibility.

Direct result: public debt of only 37% of GDP, half the average of the European Union, which is above ninety percent.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120211)



At the beginning of the 20th century, Switzerland had a lower GDP per capita than Spain. It was a rural, poor country with no natural resources. Today, it has a GDP per capita of USD 104,000, among the three highest in the world.

The result? Governance, elite education, and absolute protection of private property.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120212)



The world thinks Switzerland got rich through banking secrecy. But the financial sector represents only about 10% of GDP.

Industry, on the other hand, accounts for almost 25%, nearly three times the proportion of France and Germany. Switzerland is, in fact, one of the most advanced industrial economies in the world.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120213)



From a landlocked and oil-free country emerged giants:

- Nestlé, the world's largest food company
- Roche and Novartis, two of the five largest global pharmaceutical companies
- Rolex and Patek Philippe, absolute icons of luxury

Swiss pharmaceutical exports alone exceed one hundred billion francs per year, more than the GDP of many countries.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120214)



Furthermore: Unemployment close to 2%. Inflation below 2%. Productivity among the ten highest in the world. Currency among the strongest and most stable.

Geneva is the city with one of the highest average global salaries, above CHF 7,000/month.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120216)




Switzerland leads rankings in quality of life, safety, and education.
Homicides: 0.3 per 100,000 inhabitants, almost ten times less than the US and thirty times less than Latin America. Public transport is punctual up to 97% of the time. Retirement with one of the most solid systems in the world and well-capitalized funds.

Besides the natural beauty.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120217)




WHY DO THE RICH CHOOSE SWITZERLAND?

The attraction doesn't stem from low taxes, but from the principles that govern Swiss society.

Absolute respect for property.
Real, not rhetorical, institutional stability.
Predictable politics, with decisions made by the people.
World-class education and security.

These foundations have created an environment where successful people not only invest, but choose to live, raise families, and build a legacy.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120218)



Switzerland shows the world how wealth is built.

Fixed income allocation is at its lowest level since the 2008 crisis, signaling that investors remain predominantly positioned in equities.

At a time of higher bond premiums, this imbalance clearly reflects how risk appetite remains resilient and where there may still be room for adjustment ahead.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120196)

Fixed income, what for? The lowest level of allocation to bonds since 2008.

Market reaction:

- S&P 500 Futures: 🔴 -0.54%
- Bitcoin: 🔴 -4.28%
- Gold: 🟢 +0.93%
- Silver: 🟢 +2.05%

![](https://m.stacker.news/120055)

Japan's 20- and 10-year-old titles have just reached a new historic level.

The yield on 2-year JGBs (Japanese bank bonds) exceeded 1% for the first time since 2008, signaling that the market is beginning to price in a firmer normalization cycle by the Bank of Japan.

This movement reinforces the idea that the era of ultra-low interest rates in Japan is losing traction, and this is adjusting risk premiums worldwide.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120018)

Japan returns to the radar of global interest rates.

Bitcoin plummeted by about $4,000 in a few hours, dragged down by over $400 million in leveraged positions being unwound.

Nothing new in the current regime: volatility amplified by excessive short-term risk.

The market remains unforgiving of poorly calibrated leverage.

![](https://m.stacker.news/120013)

Forced liquidation puts the $BTC crypto market back to the test.

One of the most curious weeks of the year: stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and commodities moved together in one of the biggest cross-asset rallies of 2025, all despite a rare CME outage that took part of the market offline at a critical moment.

The message is clear, even amidst anxiety about AI valuations and fears of excessive speculation: the appetite for risk remains strong, and occasional interruptions were not enough to stop the movement.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119688)

November: Rally in Everything?

China continues to accumulate a level of liquidity and banking assets far exceeding GDP growth, creating a divergence that is difficult to ignore.

While credit floods the financial system, real activity does not respond in the same proportion.

The excess liquidity ends up trapped on bank balance sheets and in unproductive assets, instead of generating growth, one of the central challenges of the Chinese model today.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119523)

The Enigma of Chinese Liquidity?

One of the favorites to steal Powell's seat at the Fed, he is known for theories of increased productivity through tax cuts and a prediction that took 22 years to materialize.

Let's find out who Hassett is and what it means for him to assume the presidency of the Fed.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119395)


1/ THE FISCAL THESIS: CUTTING TAXES IS CUTTING INTEREST RATES

Hassett is a strong advocate for tax cuts for businesses (corporate taxes).

He believes that this reduction increases marginal productivity (how much each additional worker produces), which, in turn, increases wages.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119396)



2/ 📈 THE "Dow 36,000" CONTROVERSY

In 1999, Hassett co-authored a book with the famous and controversial prediction that the Dow Jones index would reach 36,000 points.

The prediction, made before the dot-com bubble, was widely criticized as "too optimistic" and became a joke.

In practice, the index took 22 years to reach that level.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119397)



3/ 📉 TRUMP'S HAND IN THE FED

The current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, has a term until May 2026 – but they are trying to bring that date forward.

Hassett emerges as Donald Trump's main favorite for the succession.

Interesting fact👇

Trump appointed Powell in his first term, but regretted it when Powell did not accelerate interest rate cuts at the desired pace. The choices for the Fed are the most direct way for a president to influence the Central Bank.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119398)



4/ Structure of the Fed

First of all, to understand what changes with Hasset, we need to understand HOW the Fed actually works.

Composition:

- 7 members of the Board of Governors (includes the Chair)

- 5 presidents of regional Fed banks. New York always votes and the others rotate.

Total: 12 votes per meeting.

Decision: simple majority.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119399)



5 / DOES THE FED CHAIRMAN'S VOTE COUNT FOR MORE?

Formally:

❌ No.
The Chair has 1 vote equal to that of any other voting member.

In practice:

✅ Yes, he has more influence, but not more voting power.




6/ Criticism of the Fed

In recent months, Hassett has intensified his criticism of the Fed.

He said the institution was "late" in cutting interest rates and suggested that errors in the budget for the headquarters renovation could justify Jerome Powell's dismissal.

He also raised doubts about alleged "partisan patterns" in the release of employment data.

Although Hassett's vote did not completely change the direction of the Fed, overall, markets follow the Chair, not the dissenters.




7/ Summary of Hassett's risk at the Fed

- Structurally lower interest rates

- Persistent inflation above 2% DEFINITELY becoming the "new normal"

- Risk assets (stocks, crypto, RE) loving it in the short term

Critics warn of an "overly" aligned position with Trump, which could undermine the Fed's independence.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119400)



8/ WHAT TO EXPECT?

If Kevin Hassett is chosen, the US could enter an era of:

- Monetary policy more aligned with the White House.

- Faster and more aggressive interest rate cuts (BofA predicts "well below 3%").

- A broader review of the Fed's actions and management, something considered by the government.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119401)

The name that's making the market move: Kevin Hassett

A week ago, nofi.ai put more than 20 famous AI models, including Grok, Claude, GPT-4o, and Gemini, to work trading crypto with $10,000 each in a real account.

Seven days later, the result is a bloodbath: nobody is in profit, most lost between 20% and 40%, and Grok is the worst performer with just over $4,300, a drop of almost 60%.

The truth is that many people bought into the narrative that simply connecting a large LLM to an exchange would discover the holy grail of trading. But it doesn't work that way.

In the end, this experiment is showing the obvious that old-school traders already knew: there is no magic solution. Those who thought 2025 would be the year of the "billionaire AI trader" are learning the hard way: watching Grok turn $10,000 into $4,000 in a week. An expensive lesson, but incredibly instructive.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119235)

AI in Trading: The $10,000 That Turned into a Bloodbath in 7 Days

Data shows that the European bull market lost traction throughout 2025.

The narrative shifted several times, from "Europe can overcome" to "sell America," then to the US recovery and, more recently, to the reopening of global trade.

The problem is that growth remains tepid, German stimulus has been delayed, and investors are already demanding results.

Even so, fundamentals are improving, interest rates are falling, and fiscal stimulus should appear in the first quarter of 2026.

![](https://m.stacker.news/119032)

Europe: Has the enthusiasm waned?

Valve, the creator of Steam, Half-Life, and Counter-Strike, grossed approximately US$17 billion this year and employs around 336 people. This represents over US$50 million per employee, the highest figure for any company (not related to cryptocurrencies) in the world. The average salary is approximately US$1.3 million per person. One of the most efficient companies of all time.

![](https://m.stacker.news/118820)